Ontario has stepped in and provided some guidance on how Simcoe County municipalities shall grow over the next 25 years.

In line with its Places to Grow policy, the province set a target for the area of 667,000 by 2031.
Numbers that break down where those people will live have been expected since last April. They were due again last fall, and then just before Christmas.

Late Thursday afternoon, the province released those numbers, known in municipal planning circles as Schedule 3 of Places to Grow.

The targets break down the 667,000 total population: for Simcoe County’s member municipalities, 406,000; Barrie, 180,000; Orillia, 41,000 – which leaves 40,000 for the county to allocate through its growth management process.

Complementary to Places to Grow, the county, Barrie and Orillia conducted a study, the Intergovernmental Action Plan (IGAP), that recommended growth be centred in the Barrie-South Simcoe area, in 2006.

The province also designated Barrie as the region’s urban growth centre in Places to Grow – and Barrie has been lobbying for land and jobs for a total population of 220,000, a figure at which an upgrade to membrane technology at its sewage treatment plant becomes much more affordable.
Barrie also estimates it can accommodate a population of 180,000 within its existing boundaries through intensification.

These numbers shed a bit more light on Simcoe County growth management forecasts that had previously set 76,900 as “unallocated Barrie-South Simcoe” and reduce it by almost half. The county’s numbers also forecast a population of 438,700 in Simcoe County’s member municipalities, 41,000 in Orillia and 175,000 in Barrie – which could be subject to change through Barrie-Innisfil talks.

Despite the assistance of provincial development facilitator Alan Wells, the last Barrie-Innisfil Negotiation meeting occurred in September, although there have been sidebar meetings throughout the fall, with Wells meeting individually with Barrie, Innisfil and Simcoe County.

Wells’ report to Municipal Affairs Minister Jim Watson is expected any day, as are the Schedule 3 numbers from the Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal. This ministry is playing a key role, as it controls the grants to improve water and waste-water servicing, as well as transportation and other hard-services upgrades.

Last April, both the municipal affairs minister and the public infrastructure renewal minister told Simcoe County, Barrie and Orillia to get serious about working together to find a solution for growth or risk losing out on provincial grants.

Local municipal officials are reviewing the numbers and expected to issue comments Friday.